“August in May:” A New Normal?
Texas is facing what meteorologists describe as “August weather in May.” According to a 2022 CNN report, energy analyst Michael Webber noted that Texas was “Getting August weather in May and June,” a pattern that appears to continue in 2025.
Texas is bracing for what could be a defining moment for its electric grid. With temperatures forecasted to exceed 100 degrees across large portions of the state on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is projecting demand will surge past 84 gigawatts, shattering the previous May record of 77 gigawatts and approaching the all-time peak set last August.
This unusually early extreme heat event isn’t just a weather anomaly — it’s a real-time stress test of Texas’s evolving energy landscape that arrives at a pivotal moment in the state’s energy policy debate.
Despite the impending heatwave, ERCOT officials remain confident the grid will maintain reliability without needing conservation notices — a stark contrast to 2023 when Texans faced 11 conservation requests throughout the year.
Solar and Storage: The Reliability Backbone
The reason for this confidence? Texas’s rapidly expanding solar and battery storage capacity.
Based on performance from earlier in the year, ERCOT can expect solar to deliver well over 20 megawatts (MW) during Wednesday’s peak, roughly a quarter of the state’s total needs. This represents a remarkable transformation from just two years ago, when solar capacity hovered around 12,000 MW.
Battery storage is proving equally critical. During recent heat events, utility-scale batteries have repeatedly broken performance records, with storage output surging 25% beyond previous highs during critical periods, according to Doug Lewin, author of The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter.
According to research from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the combination of solar generation during peak heat and strategic battery deployment has created a more resilient grid model than Texas had in previous years, fundamentally changing how Texas manages extreme weather events.
Legislative Crossroads
Wednesday’s grid performance arrives at a critical juncture for Texas energy policy. Several key bills and regulatory discussions are underway:
- Senate Bill (SB) 715, House Bill (HB) 3356, SB 388 and SB 819 are under consideration. If they become law, critics suggest these bills could potentially create “energy emergencies” during events like Wednesday’s peak.
- SB 231, which would allow the mobile generation program to continue operating, has a scheduled hearing in the State Affairs Committee.
- The Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) is set to consider ERCOT’s new methodology for forecasting demand at their Open Meeting on Thursday. This critical process determines how the state prepares for extreme demand events.
The timing creates a striking policy context: Just as legislators debate measures that could affect clean energy growth, Texas faces a weather event where those very resources are expected to prevent emergency conditions.
Economic Stakes
The economic implications extend far beyond the immediate question of keeping the lights on.
Texas’s rapid population growth and booming technology sector have driven electricity demand to unprecedented levels. Data centers, manufacturing facilities and residential development all depend on reliable, affordable power.
Outages can have a serious impact on the wider economy, with damage to the power grid causing costs that hit the state, businesses and homeowners alike. Outages can cost upwards of $150 billion per year, according to recent data from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
That said, wholesale electricity prices during recent extreme demand events have remained remarkably stable compared to historical patterns, according to the EIA. This benefit is attributed to renewable generation’s zero-fuel-cost nature.
Historical Context: Winter Storm Uri vs. Today’s Grid
The difference between Texas’s grid capacity today and during past emergencies is substantial. During 2021’s winter storm Uri, Texas experienced catastrophic grid failures. According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, the storm contributed to hundreds of deaths across the state.
Since then, Texas has significantly enhanced its generating capacity. According to the University of Texas at Austin researcher Joshua Rhodes, Texas has grown its solar capacity from 12,000 MW in 2023 to 20,000-plus MW today. It also has thousands of megawatts available from batteries.
The Changing Texas Grid
Several key data points illustrate the dramatic shifts in Texas’s energy landscape:
- May peak demand records: The expected 84 gigawatt peak would exceed the previous May record of 77 gigawatts by 9%.
- Solar growth trajectory: ERCOT data published by the EIA shows solar capacity has more than doubled since 2022.
- Battery storage records: Recent heat events saw battery output surge 25% beyond previous records, providing crucial support during demand peaks.
These figures highlight the extent to which Texas’s grid has changed in recent years, reflecting the growing role of renewable energy sources.
A Preview of Summer
Perhaps most concerning, tomorrow’s peak demand is merely a preview of what’s to come. ERCOT’s summer forecasts suggest multiple days could approach or exceed 90 gigawatts — territory that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.
Wednesday’s grid performance will provide valuable data on whether Texas’s current energy strategy can handle the increasingly extreme demands that climate scientists predict will become more common. A 2023 report from the EIA highlighted that early-season heat waves provide critical insights into grid resilience that can shape energy policy decisions.
What Texas Residents Should Know
As temperatures climb on Wednesday, Texans should be aware of several key resources:
- Real-time grid conditions can be monitored via ERCOT’s public dashboard.
- Conservation measures, while not currently expected to be necessary, remain a valuable tool during peak hours (typically 3 to 7 p.m.).
- Local cooling centers will be available in many communities if needed; information is typically available through county emergency management offices.
For live updates on grid conditions during Wednesday’s peak demand event, visit ERCOT’s dashboard at www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards.
