Texas Grid Strain: Will Your AC Keep Running This Summer?

Texas Faces Critical Power Challenges as Summer 2025 Approaches

As Texas approaches summer 2025, many residents are asking a crucial question: Will the state’s power grid hold up against the scorching temperatures? After experiencing devastating outages during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, which left more than 4.5 million homes without power and resulted in over 200 deaths, Texans remain justifiably concerned about the reliability of the Texas power grid.

By examining ERCOT’s current capacity projections, anticipated weather patterns and regional risk factors, we aim to help Texans understand and prepare for potential power disruptions this summer.

ERCOT’s Current Capacity Outlook: Improvement with Lingering Concerns

ERCOT, which manages the flow of electric power to more than 26 million Texas customers, has made significant improvements since the 2021 crisis. Battery storage capacity has grown substantially, with operational capacity expected to more than double from 5,242 MW to approximately 10,923 MW by the end of 2025, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

However, ERCOT’s December 2024 Capacity, Demand, and Reserves Report has raised concerns about longer-term grid stability. While Summer 2025 appears manageable, projections show potential supply shortfalls as early as 2027. Worst-case scenarios indicate an 8.3% shortfall during peak demand periods by that year, growing to a concerning 32.4% by summer 2029.

The primary challenges threatening grid reliability include:

Rapidly growing demand: Data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations and population growth are dramatically increasing electricity consumption across Texas.
Weather uncertainty: Climate models suggest summer 2025 will likely be hotter than average across Texas, particularly in western regions.
Generation mix concerns: While solar and wind capacity continues to expand rapidly, integration challenges remain during peak demand periods, especially during the late afternoon when solar generation declines but air conditioning usage remains high.

Summer 2025 Weather Forecast: Preparing for the Heat

NOAA’s long-range forecasts indicate that Summer 2025 will likely be warmer than average across most of Texas, continuing a trend of higher temperatures in recent years. Western areas of Texas face the highest probability of above-normal temperatures, with El Paso and surrounding regions likely to experience particularly intense heat waves.

While precipitation forecasts remain uncertain, much of Texas is predicted to experience drier conditions, according to NOAA information. These dry conditions could exacerbate both heat and electricity demand, as we Texans experienced during the drought conditions in the summer of 2023.

Regional Risk Assessment: Where Are Blackouts Most Likely?

Based on ERCOT data and weather projections, we’ve identified regions facing the highest risk of power disruptions during Summer 2025:

High-Risk Areas:

West Texas (El Paso, Midland, Odessa): Combination of projected extreme heat, limited local generation capacity and transmission constraints
Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex: Dense population centers with high cooling demand during peak hours
Houston Metro Area: Industrial power demands combined with residential cooling needs create significant strain, often exacerbated by hurricanes and storms off the Gulf

Moderate-Risk Areas:

Austin-San Antonio Corridor: Growing population centers but benefiting from newer infrastructure
South Texas (Corpus Christi, Brownsville): Lower overall demand but vulnerable to transmission limitations

Lower-Risk Areas:

Northeast Texas: More moderate temperature forecasts and better grid interconnection options
Parts of Central Texas: Benefiting from proximity to diverse generation resources

County-by-County Blackout Risk Assessment

To provide a more granular understanding of potential outage risks, we’ve analyzed county-level factors, including transmission infrastructure age, local generation capacity, projected temperature extremes and population density to create this detailed risk assessment:

Critical Risk Counties (Highest Vulnerability)

Harris County (Houston): Harris County faces exceptional strain due to its massive population (4.7 million residents) combined with energy-intensive industries. The county experienced some of the longest outages during Winter Storm Uri, with some areas without power for over 72 hours. The aging transmission infrastructure in the eastern portions of the county creates particular vulnerability during peak demand.
Dallas County: With approximately 2.6 million residents and summer temperatures regularly exceeding 100°F, Dallas County consistently approaches maximum capacity during summer peaks. Areas in southern Dallas County face particular risk due to older infrastructure and fewer redundant transmission pathways.
Midland/Ector Counties: Despite smaller populations, these West Texas counties face disproportionate risk due to extreme heat forecasts, limited local generation resources and their position at the end of major transmission lines. Additionally, oil and gas operations in the region create substantial industrial demand.

High-Risk Counties

Bexar County (San Antonio): While CPS Energy has made significant improvements, the sheer population density, combined with projected temperature spikes, creates substantial risk.
Tarrant County (Fort Worth): High concentration of residential cooling load combined with industrial needs.
El Paso County: Extreme heat projections and limited interconnection options.
Jefferson County (Beaumont/Port Arthur): Concentration of refineries and industrial load creates vulnerability during peak periods.
Webb County (Laredo): Limited generation resources and position at network extremity.

Moderate Risk Counties

Travis/Williamson Counties (Austin): Despite rapid growth, these counties benefit from newer infrastructure and proximity to diverse generation sources.
Collin/Denton Counties (North Dallas): Newer suburban infrastructure provides greater resilience than core urban areas.
Nueces County (Corpus Christi): The coastal location moderates temperature extremes somewhat, though the industrial load remains significant.
Cameron County (Brownsville): Further from major generation resources but benefits from coastal climate.

Lower Risk Counties

Counties in East/Northeast Texas: More moderate projected temperatures and proximity to interconnection options with other grids.
Counties in the Texas Panhandle: Generally better served by local wind resources and interconnection with the SPP grid.

Economic Impact of Potential Outages

While improving, Texas’s grid vulnerabilities carry significant economic implications. Our analysis of potential Summer 2025 outages reveals substantial costs across different sectors and regions.

Statewide Economic Impact Projections

Based on an analysis of previous outage events and current economic activity, a single day of rolling blackouts affecting just 20% of the state could cost the Texas economy between $2.8 and $4.1 billion in total economic impact. This aligns with the U.S. Department of Energy’s estimates that power outages cost American businesses around $150 billion annually.

Direct costs: Immediate losses from business closures, spoiled inventory and damaged equipment
Indirect costs: Supply chain disruptions and cascading production delays
Induced costs: Reduced consumer spending due to income losses

Extended outages lasting multiple days would have exponentially larger impacts, potentially reaching tens of billions in economic damage if they affected major metropolitan areas during peak business periods.

Sector-Specific Vulnerability

Daily economic impact of texas blackouts by section

Residential Sector Impact ($450–700 million daily)

Direct costs: Food spoilage can cost $500 to $1,000 per household during extended outages. However, according to State Farm, most insurance policies cover only partial losses. For Harris County alone, a one-day blackout affecting 20% of its 1.75 million households would result in approximately $210 million in food spoilage costs.
Productivity losses: Remote workers unable to perform their jobs during outages create economic effects far beyond Texas for companies with distributed workforces. According to Pingdom, small businesses’ average cost per minute during an outage is around $427, while larger businesses face costs closer to $9,000 per minute. For Texas, with its high concentration of remote workers, this equates to tens of millions in daily lost productivity.
Health impacts: During the summer heat, vulnerable populations face severe health risks from lack of air conditioning. According to Climate Central, power outages during extreme heat disproportionately affect the elderly and medically vulnerable, leading to increased emergency department visits. A recent study by the Center for American Progress estimated that heat events are responsible for approximately 235,000 emergency department visits and 56,000 hospital admissions nationally, adding roughly $1 billion in healthcare costs each summer.

Industrial Sector Impact ($750-950 million daily)

The industrial sector faces the most concentrated economic risk from outages, particularly the following:

Petrochemical facilities: Plants along the Gulf Coast require continuous power for safe operations. Unexpected shutdowns can damage equipment and require days or weeks for safe restarts. During Winter Storm Uri in 2021, approximately 57% of U.S. PVC production was taken offline, and according to LyondellBasell CEO Bob Patel, about “10 to 15 percent of the annual petrochemical supply along the Gulf Coast” was disrupted that year, contributing to the overall $80-130 billion in economic damage from the storm.
Semiconductor manufacturing: The growing semiconductor industry in central Texas requires uninterrupted power for precision manufacturing processes. Power quality fluctuations, even brief ones, can ruin production batches worth millions.
Data centers: With Texas attracting significant data center investments, outages threaten immediate operational losses and long-term reputational damage. According to the Uptime Institute’s 2024 Outage Analysis, more than half of data center outages cost over $100,000, with 16% exceeding $1 million.

Commercial Sector Impact ($600-800 million daily)

Retail and hospitality: These businesses typically lack backup generation capacity and face immediate revenue losses during outages. For grocery stores and restaurants, inventory spoilage compounds these losses. A 2023 study from Bloom Energy found that a single supermarket could lose up to $30,000 in merchandise from a day-long outage.
Healthcare: While critical systems have backup power, many outpatient facilities and medical offices face disruption, forcing appointment cancellations and care delays.

Consumer Rate Impact

While grid improvements and new generating capacity are helping to stabilize Texas’ electrical system, these infrastructure investments come with costs that may eventually affect consumer electricity rates. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, weatherizing Texas’s 162 natural gas-fired power plants could cost up to $95 million — less than $500,000 per facility — while protecting wellheads and critical natural gas infrastructure would add annual costs.

For residential consumers, utility companies have begun incorporating these weatherization expenses into their rate base, leading to modest increases that analysts estimate at 2% to 5% over the next several years. However, these increases are substantially lower than the economic costs of extended outages. As the Dallas Fed noted in its analysis, weatherizing the grid represents a worthwhile “insurance policy” where the cost-benefit trade-off strongly favors making these investments, with potential returns of 3:1 or greater compared to blackouts’ economic damage.

“The insurance policy of this stuff is a good cost-benefit trade-off,” said Garrett Golding, a Dallas Fed business economist. “It’s going to be worth it.”

Texas Public Utility Commission has shifted its priorities from “affordability first, reliability second” to a greater emphasis on system resilience, reflecting this understanding that grid reliability is ultimately more cost-effective than managing disaster recovery.

Geographic Distribution of Economic Impact

Economic damage from outages wouldn’t be evenly distributed across Texas. Our county-level analysis indicates:

Harris County (Houston area): Due to its concentration of energy-intensive industries and large population, Harris County could suffer a daily economic impact of $500 to 750 million. During Winter Storm Uri, some areas of Harris County were without power for over 72 hours, causing devastating financial losses.
Dallas/Tarrant Counties: Facing potential daily losses of $350 to 500 million, primarily from commercial sector disruptions and productivity impacts.
Counties with semiconductor facilities: Including Travis County (Austin) and surrounding areas could see disproportionate economic damage relative to their size due to the high-value, sensitive manufacturing processes located there. The manufacturing industry can lose up to $260,000 per hour of downtime, with some estimates for high-volume manufacturing reaching millions per hour.
Rural counties: While facing lower absolute dollar impacts, rural counties often have fewer resources for recovery and less economic resilience, making even shorter outages potentially more damaging to local economies.

Long-term Economic Considerations

Beyond immediate impacts, persistent grid reliability concerns could affect Texas’ economic outlook through:

Business relocation decisions: Companies with high power quality requirements may reconsider Texas locations if grid reliability remains uncertain. According to the VECTO System, the average cost of a one-hour outage among industrial and digital economy firms is $7,795, with some manufacturing sectors facing much higher costs.
Insurance costs: Property and business interruption insurance rates could rise in high-risk areas if outages become more common.
Defensive investments: Businesses may divert capital to backup power systems rather than more productive investments, creating economic inefficiency. An E Source survey found that power outages cost U.S. businesses $27 billion annually across eight key market segments.

This economic impact analysis underscores why grid reliability isn’t merely a convenience issue but a critical economic security concern for Texas.

How To Prepare for Potential Blackouts

Texans should consider these preparation steps before the summer heat arrives:

Essential Emergency Kit Supplies

Water: Store one gallon per person per day for at least three days
Non-perishable food: Keep a supply that doesn’t require cooking
Flashlights and batteries: Have multiple light sources available
Battery power banks: Keep devices charged for emergency communication
Battery-powered or hand-crank radio: Stay informed when the internet is unavailable
First aid supplies: For treating minor injuries during an outage

Generator Considerations

If you’re considering a backup generator, remember these critical safety points:

Always operate generators outdoors, at least 20 feet from windows, doors and vents
Install carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup
Never connect generators directly to your home’s wiring without proper transfer switches
Maintain adequate fuel supplies, stored safely

Conservation Strategies During Peak Demand

Set thermostats to 78°F or higher during peak hours (typically 3 p.m. to 7 p.m.)
Use ceiling fans to improve comfort while maintaining higher thermostat settings
Close blinds and curtains to block heat from sunlight
Avoid using major appliances during peak demand periods
Consider pre-cooling your home in the morning when demand is lower

Special Considerations for Vulnerable Populations

Elderly residents and those with medical needs should register with their utility providers for priority restoration.
Plan to relocate to a cooling center if necessary during extended outages.
Ensure that medication that requires refrigeration has backup cooling options.

Conclusion: Cautious Optimism with Preparation

Texas has made important strides in grid reliability since the 2021 winter storm disaster, but challenges remain, particularly with rapidly increasing demand from data centers and other new loads. While ERCOT appears well positioned to handle summer 2025, residents should still prepare for the possibility of temporary outages during extreme heat events.

The greatest risk will be in the late afternoon (from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m.), when solar generation begins to decline but cooling demand remains high. By understanding these risks and taking preparation steps now, Texans can minimize disruptions if outages occur.

As Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, noted in a recent statement, the organization continues working with the Texas Legislature, PUC and stakeholders “to strengthen the reliability and resiliency of the Texas power grid.” For summer 2025, system-wide improvements and individual household preparations will be key to keeping Texans safe and comfortable through the heat.

For real-time grid conditions and conservation requests, you can monitor the ERCOT dashboard at www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards.

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